Ohio redistricting commission gives up on US House map

A new bipartisan commission tasked with redrawing Ohio’s political boundaries every decade surrendered its authority to draw congressional districts without even considering a proposal, punting the decision to a state leg…

Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/579405-ohio-redistricting-commission-gives-up-on-us-house-map
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The Article Was Written/Published By: Reid Wilson

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Virginia’s vote-counters are ready for a tight race that could take days to resolve

Recent polls have the high-stakes Virginia governor’s race as a neck-and-neck contest between Terry McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin — and that means it could take days to determine the winner.

The vast majority of Virginia’s votes are expected to be counted on Election Day, and the state has made improvements to election laws earlier this year that will likely expedite the election night process — including some changes made, at least partially, to prevent conspiracy theories about the count from taking hold. But exceedingly close elections can take longer to resolve, including recounts. And in this case, Virginia law allows mail ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they arrive by Nov. 5, three days later.

Former President Donald Trump and some of his supporters have already begun warning of voter fraud and laying the groundwork to question the veracity of Virginia’s elections after undermining faith in the 2020 results with a series of baseless claims. “The Virginia governor’s election — you better watch it,” Trump said in an interview with John Fredericks, a popular conservative radio host in the state, in September. “You have a close race in Virginia, but it’s not close if they cheat.”

Other states soon took center stage after Election Day 2020, but Virginia’s vote-counting was another prime example of how bad actors can sow disinformation by taking advantage of the general public’s unfamiliarity with election procedures. The Associated Press called the state for President Joe Biden about a half-hour after polls closed. At the time only 10 percent of the vote was reported in, and Trump was still leading in the early raw vote count. That lead in the incomplete count persisted for hours, which conspiracy theorists used to claim the state was stolen from Trump.

In reality, Biden won the state by a huge margin. Trump’s fleeting lead was due to a combination of Republican-leaning areas reporting results earlier than Democratic-dominated counties, as the AP noted in its explainer of its call, and Democrats disproportionately voting via mail ballots, which were generally reported later in the evening.

Some new changes should make the process even smoother and more clear in Virginia. A law passed earlier this year requires that in-person early voting and mail ballots be reported separately, after previously being reported in one big tranche, which election officials say will improve the process.

“That separation allows for a couple of different things: It means that people will know where the votes came from,” said Brenda Cabrera, the director of elections for the city of Fairfax and the president of the Voter Registrars Association of Virginia. “Dividing it up also allows us to get those results in faster.”

The new law also requires jurisdictions to begin preprocessing mail ballots no later than a week before the election. A lack of preprocessing of mail ballots is what made the mail ballot count — which was heavily Democratic in 2020 after Trump’s attacks on mail voting — take so long in states like Pennsylvania last year.

Scott Konopasek, the new general registrar of Fairfax County, said “it’s going to look like a wildly different night” in his county this year than in years past. Fairfax County, which is separate from the city of Fairfax, is a Democratic bastion notorious among election observers for its late reporting.

“Right at seven o’clock, or right shortly after seven o’clock, I’ll be reporting the absentee portion,” Konopasek said, noting that those numbers have historically been one of the last things in the evening. He said he anticipates early in-person voting results to come in within an hour of polls closing, and numbers from Election Day precincts should start rolling in around 8 p.m.

“The big giant bite of ballots that has, in the past, mysteriously shown up at the end is going to start out at the kickoff this time,” Konopasek said. He noted it was a jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction decision, and others will not have the same reporting timeframe that he does.

Loudoun County general registrar Judy Brown, for example, wrote in an email she anticipated that her jurisdiction would report “early voting numbers first followed by election day votes followed by mail ballots,” allowing for the possibility that mail ballots are reported in the same window as Election Day votes. She wrote that her expectation for when the county’s results are mostly reported would be no later than 9 p.m., two hours after polls close, “if all goes well.”

But if the election is extremely close, it could be a wait until Friday to find out the winner. The state allows ballots that are postmarked by the U.S. Postal Service no later than Election Day and received by noon on Friday to count.

Those late-arriving ballots “will be reported once the central absentee precinct meets again after the noon deadline on Friday” said Allison Robbins, the chief elections officer of Wise County, which is on the southwestern tip of the state.

That number was small in 2020, the first year where mail balloting was available to all Virginians, coming in at about 10,000 votes out of the nearly 4.5 million who cast a ballot last year.

Election officials are urging voters to have patience as results come in. Cabrera of Fairfax City noted that “anything reported on election night is unofficial,” and it has always been that way. She said that officials go through “a series of checks and balances” to make sure official results are accurate. Election officers noted that corrections to vote totals are routine. They all also expressed confidence in running a good election in a week.

“We’re not a top-down process in Virginia. It’s local officials in the 133 jurisdictions who manage and administer elections,” said Robbins, a former past president of the state’s local election officials association. “I’m very confident in Virginia’s processes and am extremely proud of the work that our local people do.”

A recount is also possible, if the margin between the two candidates is within 1 percentage point. A petition for a recount can be made by the trailing candidate within 10 days following statewide certification of the election, which is on Nov. 15. If the race is within half a point, the state picks up the cost, and if it is larger than that the trailing candidate pays for it.

Even still, there is a window of opportunity for bad actors to take advantage of the vote count, and parts of MAGA-world beyond Trump have already started to spread those conspiracy theories.

One America News Network, the far-right cable network favored by the former president, ran a segment over the weekend urging conservatives to volunteer in Virginia to guard against supposed fraud. “Are there enough Republican volunteers to make sure there’s no midnight ballot drop?” Christina Bobb, the OAN host who has been one of the chief proponents pushing for partisan election reviews across the country, said in the segment captured by the liberal watchdog Media Matters. “Are there enough volunteers bold enough to ask questions of suspicious people doing suspicious things?”

Virginia state Sen. Amanda Chase, who proudly dubs herself “Trump in heels,” is on the vanguard of Republicans who falsely say the 2020 election was stolen from Trump.

Youngkin, the Republican nominee, has not repeated those sentiments. After winning the nomination, he has said he believes Biden was legitimately elected, something he did not say directly during the primary. Youngkin said during the first gubernatorial debate that Virginia would “have a clear, fair election,” and both he and McAuliffe pledged to accept the results.

Democrats charge Youngkin is trying to have it both ways, on everything from prioritizing “election integrity” efforts during the primary and calling for audits of election machines, to accepting Trump’s support and campaigning with Chase. Youngkin, in turn, has called on McAuliffe to apologize for claiming the 2000 election was “stolen” following the Bush v. Gore Supreme Court decision, and for saying on the stump that Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams would be the governor of her state if not for voter disenfranchisement that “took the votes away.”

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/28/virginia-vote-count-governors-race-517401
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The Article Was Written/Published By: Zach Montellaro

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Wisconsin audit finds 2020 election was secure

A nonpartisan audit of the results of the 2020 presidential race in Wisconsin found that the state’s voting machines correctly tabulated the votes cast in the crucial swing state, marking another dismissal of claims by fo…

Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/578075-wisconsin-audit-finds-its-elections-are-secure
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The Article Was Written/Published By: Tal Axelrod

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Texas GOP approves redistricting maps amid Democratic outcry

New redistricting maps were approved by Texas Republicans on Monday amid state Democrats arguing that the maps were the product of a rushed process.The state GOP lawmakers approved redrawn U.S. House maps that appe…

Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/577335-texas-gop-approves-redistricting-maps-amid-democratic-outcry
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The Article Was Written/Published By: Cameron Jenkins

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Senate to vote on sweeping voting rights bill Republicans promise to filibuster

The vote, which is likely to take place Wednesday, might be the last dance for federal voting rights legislation.

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-vote-sweeping-voting-rights-bill-republicans-promise-filibuster-n1281651
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The Article Was Written/Published By: Sahil Kapur

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Philippines election: Who will succeed President Rodrigo Duterte?

Voters in the pandemic-ravaged country want a leader who will get COVID-19 under control and restart the economy.

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/program/the-stream/2021/10/7/philippines-election-who-will-succeed-president-rodrigo-duterte
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Voters in 36 states will elect a governor next year. Here’s a cheat sheet.

The country found out just how important governors are over the past 20 months. Next year, the vast majority of Americans will decide whether those leaders should keep their jobs after the once-in-a-generation pandemic.

While the midterms have often been cast as a referendum on which party should control Washington, voters in 36 states will also elect governors in 2022, ranging from the nation’s largest state — California, fresh off a gubernatorial recall election — to the least populated state of Wyoming. And if the last year-and-a-half has shown anything, these governors’ races shouldn’t be playing second fiddle to Congress, either for voters’ attention or donors’ dollars.

“I think the pandemic, over the last year and a half, has been a really good time for people to realize how important their governors are,” said Marshall Cohen, the political director of the Democratic Governors Association. “These governors races are not national the way that federal races are, and each state is its own unique set of circumstances.”

POLITICO spoke with two dozen operatives deeply involved in the nation’s gubernatorial landscape — ranging from party leaders in Washington, D.C., to state party chairs and top aides to candidates in some of the most competitive states on the map — to define the 2022 map with a year to go.

The broad national environment still plays a role: Republicans are confident that, with the wind at their backs, they can flip governors’ mansions in battleground states. But gubernatorial races are also fought with more state-specific motivations in mind — on everything from the pandemic to education to local taxes — that allow for scenarios like Democrats defending a seat in the traditionally deep red Kansas, and for Republicans holding and fighting for several seats in the blue Northeast.

Both parties have pickup opportunities next year, though there are only a handful of open seats, with just three right now — Arizona, Maryland and Pennsylvania — expected to be battlegrounds. Incumbents on both sides of the aisle have spent the last few years building sizable political operations and deep war chests, allowing the parties to spend on a more core battleground of states.

“I think the good thing for us is — if you look at our map — I don’t expect the vast majority of our incumbents are going to need our engagement next year,” said Dave Rexrode, the executive director of the Republican Governors Association, which is confident about defending sitting governors in large, pricey states like Texas and Ohio.

That means dumping tens of millions of dollars into just a handful of states instead of the 28 states Republicans were worried about in 2018. Democrats find themselves in the same situation.

“I think one of the things that puts us in a stronger position going into an incumbent cycle is that we’ve had such a long runway,” DGA executive director Noam Lee said. “These are teams we’re familiar with. These are operations we’ve helped build.”

The two parties largely agree on the scope of the core battlefield. Democrats’ top defensive targets will likely be the usual presidential battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, along with Kansas, where Gov. Laura Kelly is the only Democrat seeking reelection in a state then-President Donald Trump carried last year.

Republicans, meanwhile, are on defense in Arizona and Georgia, with big question marks in a quartet of traditionally blue states that have nevertheless elected and reelected Republican governors recently.

“What are the top three states for them? Kansas, Wisconsin and Michigan,” Rexrode said. “What are our big three states? Kansas, Wisconsin and Michigan.”

An early test of the landscape is just a month away in Virginia. The state has long been considered a political bellwether ahead of midterm elections, where the off-year race has almost always historically swung against the party in power across the Potomac River.

But with more than a year to go until the midterms, these races aren’t completely set. More candidates are expected to jump into marquee races during the last quarter of this year and in early 2022, and some incumbent governors still need to decide if they will seek reelection.

The open seats

Arizona will likely be the most competitive open seat race in the nation next November, with Republican Gov. Doug Ducey term-limited. Trump recently endorsed Kari Lake, a former local TV anchor. But thus far, that endorsement has not been a field clearer for Republicans. Former Rep. Matt Salmon remains in the race with the backing of Club for Growth, the anti-tax group that has typically aligned itself with Trump in primaries.

Other GOP candidates include state Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson, who is expected to be able to bring significant resources to bear for the race; state Treasurer Kimberly Yee; Steve Gaynor, the party’s 2018 nominee for secretary of state; and Daniel McCarthy, who now-former Sen. Martha McSally handily beat in a 2020 primary.

Looming over the race: the enduring, Trump-driven effort to reverse Republicans’ 2020 election losses in the state. That’s reinforced by the leading Democratic candidate, Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, whose opposition to a flawed GOP-led review of the 2020 election in Maricopa County has boosted her national profile.

Democrats’ best pick-up opportunity is likely in Maryland, where Republican Gov. Larry Hogan is barred from running again. Before the general election, the GOP will signal the direction it is going in the blue state: Kelly Schulz, who serves as Hogan’s commerce secretary, and state Del. Daniel Cox, who has recently modeled himself as a Trump-style Republican and said he attended the rally that preceded the storming of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, are both running. Other Republicans may soon get in — including Michael Steele, the former lieutenant governor and Republican National Committee chair who has ardently opposed Trump.

The Democratic primary is expected to be a crowded one, with many candidates already in the race. The field includes two former Obama cabinet secretaries: Tom Perez, who was labor secretary and a former Democratic National Committee chair, and former Education Secretary John King. Other candidates include longtime state Comptroller Peter Franchot, former Prince George’s County executive Rushern Baker, former state attorney general Doug Gansler and well-known author Wes Moore.

In Pennsylvania, Democrats are waiting for the all-but-certain announcement from state Attorney General Josh Shapiro that he’s running to replace term-limited Gov. Tom Wolf. Shapiro’s entrance is expected imminently, and he will be backed by a wave of institutional support.

A messy and uncertain primary awaits the GOP, one that could leave any potential nominee bruised up against an unscathed Shapiro. The already-crowded field includes former Rep. Lou Barletta, Montgomery County commissioner Joe Gale, former U.S. Attorney William McSwain, former Chester County Chamber official Guy Ciarrocchi, activist Charlie Gerow and others. Some have formed exploratory committees, including state Sens. Scott Martin and Dan Laughlin, who is looking to run as a post-Trump moderate in a field that has largely embraced the former president.

And Republicans — including state Sen. Doug Mastriano, state Senate President Jake Corman and members of Congress like Rep. Mike Kelly — have all publicly toyed with the idea of running, meaning the field could get more crowded still.

The major battlegrounds

One party in Georgia is trying to keep itself together. The other is waiting for one woman’s decision.

Gov. Brian Kemp is besieged on both sides. Trump’s enmity for the first-term GOP governor is so strong that he told rallygoers in Georgia last month he’d rather have Kemp’s 2018 Democratic opponent, Stacey Abrams, in charge in Atlanta. But Trump has not gone so far as to back the campaign of Democrat-turned-Republican Vernon Jones, a former state representative, despite some members of his orbit backing Jones. Instead, Trump’s operation has tried to nudge former Sen. David Perdue into the race, and Kemp has been working to get the rank-and-file back into his corner even as the former president continues to attack him for not assisting him in overturning the 2020 election.

Abrams has been widely expected to run after her narrow loss to Kemp in 2018. She has yet to announce a decision, while she has kicked off a nationwide tour that does not visit her home state. No other Democrat in the state has dared to float a run while everyone awaits Abrams’ decision.

Republicans see Kansas as their best pick-up opportunity anywhere on the map. Nevertheless, Democrats are expected to fight hard for Gov. Laura Kelly, and outside groups like EMILY’s List have already signaled that they will be in her corner for the election, circulating early internal polling that has her above water in the state.

Republicans are largely united around state Attorney General Derek Schmidt. The party will likely avoid a competitive, drawn out primary after former Gov. Jeff Colyer abruptly announced he was ending his campaign to seek treatment for a cancer diagnosis.

One issue to watch in Kansas is abortion. During the August 2022 primary, Kansans will vote for an amendment to the state constitution that would add that it “does not create or secure a right to abortion,” after the state Supreme Court found as much in 2019. This could supercharge the issue during a summer where the Supreme Court in Washington is already expected to revisit Roe v. Wade.

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is among Republicans’ top targets in 2022, but the first-term governor has built a national profile since her election and has a formidable fundraising operation.

The Republican field to challenge her is already crowded. James Craig, who retired as head of the Detroit Police Department to challenge Whitmer, is seen as an early leader for the nomination, but not a field clearer. Other candidates include Tudor Dixon, a conservative media personality; Garrett Soldano, a chiropractor who led early protests opposing coronavirus measures from Whitmer; and Kevin Rinke, a businessman who launched an “exploratory committee” and has the capacity to self-fund. Some Republicans would like to see John James, who lost Senate races in 2018 and 2020, take a shot at Whitmer, too.

Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak’s battle for reelection in Nevada will likely fall into the top tier of competitive races in November, but first Republicans will need to pick their nominee. Former Sen. Dean Heller recently launched his campaign, which could resurface his sometimes contentious relationship with Trump. He is joining a field that includes Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo; the party-switching North Vegas Mayor John Lee; Joey Gilbert, a former boxer and an attorney who was at the Jan. 6 insurrection, and others. A recent poll from the Nevada Independent found Heller and Lombardo in the top two spots, but neither has the nomination locked down. And the field might yet grow: GOP Rep. Mark Amodei recently said he was “torn” about running for governor or sticking around for the potential of serving in the House majority in 2022.

It is also worth watching for any intraparty squabbles among Democrats in the state. Supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vt.) won control of the state party, widening a fissure between progressives and the remnants of the Reid Machine, which former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid corralled to make one of the most effective operations in the country. A splinter coordinated campaign is now being run out of Washoe County with the blessing of both Sisolak and Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto —who also has a hyper-competitive election next year — while the state party has sprouted its own.

Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers will have one of the most contested reelection fights in the nation, but the Democrat has already posted strong fundraising numbers in the off year and does not have any primary challengers standing in his way.

On the Republican side, the field remains unsettled: Former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch is considered a strong candidate, but GOP Sen. Ron Johnson’s public indecision on whether he’ll seek reelection has left the field murky. Johnson at one point flirted with a gubernatorial run before ruling it out, but his indecision has frozen other could-be candidates including Kevin Nicholson, a businessman who finished second in the 2018 Senate primary. Should Johnson run for reelection, Nicholson would likely jump into the gubernatorial race.

The big four

The nation’s four largest states are less competitive — and possibly prohibitively expensive for the challenging party to try to compete.

In California, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom could face many of the same names he just vanquished in the state’s recall election last month. Some of the Republican candidates, including former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and right-wing radio host Larry Elder, are either already running or are considering bids — but the GOP has admitted that its potential statewide in the Golden State is basically non-existent for the foreseeable future.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has built a campaign machine that functionally never turns off, with tens-of-millions in the bank and Trump’s endorsement locked up. Even still, he has drawn primary challengers from former state party chair Allen West (who was a member of Congress representing Florida) and former state Sen. Don Huffines, among others. His allies expect him to easily blow by the primary field, but Democrats hope that the primary’s existence — and Trump needling the governor about the 2020 election — could expose Abbott.

On the Democratic side, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke is widely expected to get into the race. Democrats view him as their best chance to take on Abbott during the cycle, citing his narrow loss to Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018 and a fundraising apparatus that could rival Abbott’s. But Republicans welcome his challenge, arguing that O’Rourke’s failed presidential bid damaged his brand, and that Abbott is not nearly as vulnerable as Cruz was in a Democratic wave year. Actor Matthew McConaughey has also said he’s weighing a run. He’s made calls to influential people in Texas politics, including some moderate Republicans.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is widely believed to be positioning himself for a potential 2024 presidential run. But first, he’ll need to win reelection. Republicans argue that he is well positioned, despite drawing widespread attention for his handling of the pandemic — which includes withering criticism from many public health experts and Democrats. He has not formally announced his bid, but already has more than $50 million in the bank, with aspirations to raise scores of millions more for his campaign.

The Democratic race is a faceoff between state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried and Rep. Charlie Crist, who last won the governorship over a decade-and-a-half ago as a Republican before leaving the party for a failed Senate bid and a losing 2014 gubernatorial bid as a Democrat. Republicans hope that the late-August primary will leave the eventual nominee damaged and cash-poor — making it an even tougher proposition to go against DeSantis without outside help, which could pull resources from elsewhere on the map.

Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul took over the reins in New York after now-former Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned amid a myriad of allegations of inappropriate behavior — but some very prominent Democrats are considering challenging her for the nomination, in what could be an immensely expensive primary contest in the Empire State. That list is long, but it includes potential candidates like state Attorney General Tish James, outgoing New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, Rep. Tom Suozzi, state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi and many more.

Republicans, too, will have a crowded field: Rep. Lee Zeldin has worked to coalesce support among Republicans in the state. Andrew Giuliani — the son of the now-controversial former mayor — and former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino are also in the mix. But with a Cuomo-less election on the horizon in 2022, the state is favored to remain in Democratic hands.

Don’t sleep on these

There is considerable uncertainty in Alaska, where Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy is seeking a second term, because of the state’s new elections system. All candidates will run in the same primary, and the top four will advance to a ranked-choice November election. Already in the race is former Republican-turned-independent Gov. Bill Walker, whom Dunleavy ousted in 2018. Former Democratic state Rep. Les Gara is also running, and other would-be candidates are considering bids, including Al Gross, an independent who unsuccessfully challenged GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan in 2020 with the blessing of Democrats.

Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont has not yet declared he’ll seek another term, but the Democrat is expected to do so. Republicans haven’t totally written off the state, despite its general blue lean, after Lamont only won by 3 points in 2018. The GOP does not have a candidate yet, but Bob Stefanowski, whom Lamont defeated last time, and former state House Minority Leader Themis Klarides are both considering runs. Complicating any bid to oust Lamont is that most of Connecticut’s voters live in the incredibly expensive New York media market.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker is a favorite to win reelection in the state and has already started deploying his considerable fortune on early internet ads to kickstart his reelection bid. Even still, Republicans could turn this into an expensive and competitive race. Businessperson Jesse Sullivan recently entered the race with $10 million in the bank, and a new congressional map from Democrats that’s expected to try to gerrymander some of the Republicans in the delegation out of office could nudge someone like Reps. Rodney Davis or Adam Kinzinger into the gubernatorial race. And Chicago billionaire Ken Griffin’s potential support of a Republican candidate — Pritzker’s self-funding has nullified the state’s contribution limits for other candidates — could also make it difficult for Pritzker to coast to victory.

Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds is likely in a stronger position to win reelection than in 2018 — when she squeaked out a narrow victory — as the often swingy Iowa has moved further to Republicans over the last several years. The Democratic primary could still be competitive, and the state isn’t a lock depending on the nominee: State Rep. Ras Smith and Deidre DeJear — who was the party’s 2018 secretary of state nominee — are already in the race, and prominent Iowans including state Auditor Rob Sand, Rep. Cindy Axne and state Sen. Pam Jochum have publicly floated bids.

It will likely be a battle of known commodities in Maine: Democratic Gov. Janet Mills is primed to square up against former Republican Gov. Paul LePage, who has a clear shot to his party’s nomination. Mills won her first term in 2018 — when LePage was term-limited — by a fairly comfortable margin, but the role of a third-party candidate will be a big question. Even in Mills’ 2018 win, an independent candidate drew 6 percent of the vote — and LePage first won the office in 2010 with just 38 percent of the vote. The state’s recent shift to ranked choice voting does not apply to the gubernatorial general election.

In Massachusetts, everything rides on whether Gov. Charlie Baker will run for a third term. Baker won reelection in a landslide in 2018 after a close 2014 victory (and a narrow 2010 loss). If he were to be the nominee again, Republicans would be in strong position to hold the state, even as some Democrats are hopeful his support has softened over the last four years. But he is also facing a primary challenge from former state Rep. Geoff Diehl, whom Trump endorsed this week. Should Baker not run, state Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito could be a leading candidate.

Democrats already have three candidates in the race — state Sen. Sonia Chang-Diaz, former state Sen. Benjamin Downing and Harvard professor Danielle Allen — and others could be waiting for a clearer sign for what Baker will do. State Attorney General Maura Healey has been publicly mulling a run for governor herself, also freezing the field.

Minnesota has voted for Democrats reliably over the last decade, but it is one that Democrats argue they can’t sleep on, given the sometimes sneaky competitiveness of the state in some recent races. Republicans have attracted several candidates thus far to face Democratic Gov. Tim Walz — including state Sens. Michelle Benson and Paul Gazelka and former state Sen. Scott Jensen. Jennifer Carnahan, who recently resigned as GOP state party chair over her ties to a top donor charged with sex crimes (she denies any knowledge) and allegations of a hostile work environment, has floated a run.

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu has not yet announced if he will seek another term or run against Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan, freezing much of the field on both sides for now in the perennial swing state. Should Sununu not run for his current job, Republicans consider former Sen. Kelly Ayotte a strong potential candidate.

Republicans are bullish about their chances in New Mexico against Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham. Mark Ronchetti, a TV weatherman who unsuccessfully ran for the state’s open Senate seat last year, is considering another statewide run for governor. If he runs, he’d join a GOP field that includes some local Republican candidates, including state Rep. Rebecca Dow and Jay Block, a Sandoval County commissioner.

Ohio has become decidedly less competitive since former President Barack Obama left office, with Republicans dominating most recent statewide elections. Republican Gov. Mike DeWine is running for reelection. Trump has shown he is no fan of the Ohio incumbent, and former Rep. Jim Renacci — the only Republican to lose a statewide race since 2016 — is already primarying him. But DeWine has amassed a significant war chest that his backers believe will leave him in a strong position, in both the primary and general election.

Democrats will have a tall task in front of them to recapture their past success in this Rust Belt state. Battling to try to do so is a pair of mayors: Nan Whaley from Dayton and John Cranley from Cincinnati.

Now-former Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo was already term-limited, so her departure for Washington, D.C., to be Biden’s commerce secretary only sped up what is going to be a competitive Democratic primary in the state. Gov. Dan McKee is running for a full term after taking over the office from Raimondo, but he is not a field-clearer. Already in the race is state Treasurer Seth Magaziner, current state Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea and former state Secretary of State Matt Brown, with others waiting in the wings. (Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza recently ruled out a run.)

Republicans are not totally writing the state off, but it’s not among their top targets. Former Cranston Mayor Allan Fung — who narrowly lost in 2014 to Raimondo when a third party candidate got 20 percent of the vote and was blown out of the water by her in 2018 — recently took a job with the McKee administration, likely closing the door on another bid for the governor’s mansion.

No prominent candidate has gotten in the race on either side of the ticket in Vermont. Republicans are hopeful that Gov. Phil Scott will run again, as he has won comfortably every two years since 2016 and would likely take this otherwise blue state almost entirely off the map.

Primary problems

In safer states, the real action is in the primaries. Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey could face a stiff intraparty challenge in her bid for a second full term. Lynda Blanchard, who was the American ambassador to Slovenia during the Trump administration, is currently running for the state’s open Senate seat — but has been spinning her wheels since Trump endorsed Rep. Mo Brooks in that primary. And state Auditor Jim Zeigler has been critical of Ivey and has said he is exploring a run.

Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Trump’s former press secretary and the daughter of former Gov. Mike Huckabee, is thought to be the favorite in Arkansas to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson. Trump endorsed his former spokesperson, which drove some potential candidates away from the race — though not state Attorney General Leslie Rutledge.

Once-purple Colorado has turned an increasingly darker shade of blue, with Democratic Gov. Jared Polis in a very strong position to win reelection next year. Even so, Heidi Ganahl, a member of the state board of regents and the only elected Republican serving statewide, recently launched a bid to challenge Polis in a crowded field.

Democrats are expected to retain the governorship in Hawaii, even with current Gov. David Ige term-limited. A busy primary could pop up on the islands, with candidates including Lt. Gov. Josh Green, former first lady Vicky Cayetano and former Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell in the race.

Idaho Gov. Brad Little has not declared his reelection bid in the dark red state, but has been fundraising and is expected to do so. But he may have to navigate through a tricky primary from the right that would include his own lieutenant governor, Janice McGeachin, and a regional GOP chair, Ed Humphreys.

The primary to replace term-limited Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts could turn into a dragdown fight between two megadoners: Charles Herbster, who allied himself with the former president and has drawn attacks from Ricketts’ team, and board of regents member Jim Pillen.

Republicans believe that Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt is on a glide path to another term, even as he faces what could be nominal primary challengers in a state with a low barrier to get on the ballot.

Oregon Gov. Kate Brown is term-limited, and already, several high-profile Democrats have gotten in the race, including state House Speaker Tina Kotek and state Treasurer Tobias Read. Other big candidates could still be around the corner, including state Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum and New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof.

South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster is favored to win another term in office, and the Republican faces no serious primary challengers. But Democrats could have a competitive primary nevertheless, with former Rep. Joe Cunningham and state Sen. Mia McLeod both running for what will be an uphill general election.

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem has a clear path to reelection, as she eyes a potential launching pad to even higher office.

Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee is the odds-on favorite to win another term in a state Democrats have struggled mightily in since former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen last held the governor’s mansion a decade ago.

Wyoming is the nation’s most Republican state — and if GOP Gov. Mark Gordon seeks a second term, it’s his for the taking.

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/06/the-fifty-governors-2022-515211
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The Article Was Written/Published By: Zach Montellaro

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Colorado remap plan creates new competitive district

A new U.S. House district awarded to Colorado after a decade of rapid growth will set Democrats and Republicans up for a competitive showdown in the northern suburbs of Denver after the state’s redistricting commission ca…

Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/574479-colorado-remap-plan-creates-new-competitive-district
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The Article Was Written/Published By: Reid Wilson

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Cities become pawns in redistricting game

For decades, since the U.S. Supreme Court modernized the redistricting process in the 1960s, the city of Nashville has had its own representative in Congress. That member has often represented …

Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/574198-cities-become-pawns-in-redistricting-game
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The Article Was Written/Published By: Reid Wilson

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California to adopt all-mail voting

California will become the sixth state to conduct its elections entirely by mail after Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) signed new legislation codifying a temporary practice adopted during the coronavirus pandemic….

Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/574138-california-to-adopt-all-mail-voting
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The Article Was Written/Published By: Reid Wilson

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‘The No. 1 issue’: Trump whips up election falsehoods after flawed Arizona report

Friday’s flawed report from the Republicans investigating Arizona’s 2020 election isn’t changing minds or dampening enthusiasm among election conspiracy theorists. Instead, the movement keeps gaining traction in the Republican Party.

Inexperienced reviewers hired by the Arizona state Senate have been trawling through the results in Maricopa County for months, with the county’s Republican elected officials debunking their claims as they went along. But as draft copies of the report surfaced Thursday night, with a vote count aligning with the official results showing President Joe Biden won, GOP-controlled Texas became the latest state to launch a copycat investigation of 2020 results in four large counties. Republican state legislative leaders in two states Biden narrowly won, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, recently blessed election reviews as well.

Republican candidates up and down the ballot in state after state are adopting former President Donald Trump’s phony claims about fraud and stolen elections. And in Arizona, Republicans said their demand to keep revisiting 2020 was inflamed — and that the report made it necessary to consider more restrictive voting rules in future elections.

“This is a huge win for the 3 November movement to get to the bottom of the 2020 election,” said Boris Epshteyn, former special assistant to Trump who has been tracking efforts in Arizona. He said “the next step is a full audit and canvass of all Arizona counties and including a full canvass in Maricopa County.”

The Arizona state GOP held a watch party for the unveiling of the report, and multiple candidates for governor questioned the validity of the state’s 2020 election results throughout the day. The same thoughts and statements have spread to other states, too, driven by Trump’s lies and unsubstantiated claims about the election.

For months, Trump has been fixated on reports about the 2020 election results, and has been particularly interested in the Republican efforts in Arizona. During media appearances and at event speeches, Trump made questioning the 2020 election results a major rallying cry, even calling it the “crime of the century.” Behind the scenes, Trump got regular updates from aides and allies about the minutiae of the Arizona auditors’ findings and closely followed the right-wing media’s coverage.

Months of work and millions of dollars poured into producing a report that election experts — including Democrats, Republicans and nonpartisan officials — have urged people to reject out of hand because of the improvised processes of the review, the inexperience of those running it and their promotion of conspiracy theories about the election. They said the fact that the final vote tally from the report closely tracks the actual official results does not change the fact that it should be dismissed.

“The takeaway is that this was a colossal waste of time,” said Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, a Democrat who is now running for governor, in a brief interview on Friday. “And anyone who is considering replicating it in their state, or taking further action based on this report, should not be considered a serious leader.”

Trump watched coverage of the Arizona hearing from his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Fla., and was updated on findings by aides, according to a spokesperson. In statements, Trump hailed the audit as a “big win for democracy and a big win for us.”

“Voters are demanding it,” Trump’s spokesperson Liz Harrington said. “It’s the number one issue of concern we hear.”

Trump’s obsession with the 2020 election and his efforts to undermine the results, said a Trump aide, “will never be dropped. I think he believes it, and number two, it is a rallying point for the base. It’s something a lot of his supporters believe in.”

According to a September CNN poll, 78 percent of Republicans say Biden did not win and 54 percent believe there is evidence to support that belief.

That’s despite major missteps in the election review process — and no smoking gun at the end of it. At a hearing for the final release of the report, Doug Logan — the founder and CEO of Cyber Ninjas, the firm hired by the state Senate to conduct the work — blamed some of the missteps on either inexperience or lack of cooperation from Maricopa County.

One of those claims came from Logan in July, about 74,000 ballots being mailed back with no record of them being sent out in the first place. This was not true: The vast majority of those ballots were in-person early votes, and Logan and his team just did not have the experience to understand how different types of ballots were categorized. “That was not a purposeful discrepancy, it was just something that was not immediately clear at that point,” Logan said at the Friday hearing.

“The fact that they spouted this piece of misinformation, it’s out there,” Hobbs said. “And no matter what they say to try to backtrack it, people believe that that’s the real information.”

Nevertheless, Logan acknowledged that the tallies from his count are remarkably close to the official results. “The ballots that were provided to us to count [at their counting site] very accurately correlate with the official canvass numbers that came through,” he said during the hearing.

But Trump allies are forging ahead. State Rep. Mark Finchem — whose campaign for Arizona secretary of state has been endorsed by Trump — immediately called for an audit for Pima County, the second-largest county in the state that is heavily Democratic.

In interviews, Trump allies said their focus wasn’t on the vote tallies themselves but rather on the number of ballots the report disputes for reasons like the possibility of a voter moving out of the county pre-election — which the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors addressed on Twitter. Trump allies accused the media of misinterpreting the review results, and Trump promised in a statement to discuss the report at his rally on Saturday in Georgia.

Election officials point to a bevy of problems with the review from the start: The review in Arizona used secretive, shifting processes that did not match those used in the past by legitimate election reviews. Logan had no past experience with elections and promoted conspiracy theories echoed by Trump before the review, appearing in a film about the conspiracy of the stolen election while the review was taking place. The whole process was largely paid for by nonprofits allied with Trump and tied to the “Stop the Steal” movement.

“This has been a sloppy process from the beginning, a process that was continually changing,” said Jennifer Morrell, an elections auditing expert who had served as an observer of the process for the Arizona secretary of state. It was “done by individuals without the skills and knowledge and expertise not just in auditing, but in election administration,” she said.

They warn that the conclusions from the report should not be taken at face value because of that, pointing to specific errors. Many of the report’s findings, like a claim of ballots cast from prior addresses or “potential” voters voting multiple times, are rooted in an amateurish understanding of elections and a desire to pre-judge the results, according to the experts.

In particular, the report’s reliance on a commercial database to make claims about voters’ residency status was inappropriate, they said.

“For validating a person’s residence, and whether they are eligible to vote and where they lived in the weeks just before Election Day 2020, I think it’s probably not a trustworthy source,” said Barry Burden, the director of the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

“By saying there’s tens of thousands [of potential problems] and there’s a margin of error here does a real disservice, and a competent reviewer of an election would not make a claim like that,” echoed former Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, a Republican.

Burden and Grayson, who co-authored a report earlier in this year on the problems with the Arizona review, and Morrell based their comments on a draft version of the final report that circulated late Thursday. Maricopa County, which has a Republican majority on its county board and a Republican chief election official, also disputed much of the report after a preliminary review and during Friday’s hearing, calling the findings “either intentionally misleading or staggeringly ignorant.”

“The whole premise of the project, the foundations and the preparation, are just off. And so I don’t think we should take much of anything away from the conclusions, and ultimately discourage other actors and other states from doing that sort of thing,” said Burden.

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/24/trump-election-falsehoods-arizona-report-514275
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The Article Was Written/Published By: Zach Montellaro and Meridith McGraw

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GOP-backed Arizona election review confirms Biden 2020 win

An election audit prompted by the Republican-controlled Arizona state Senate appears to confirm President Biden won Maricopa County, Ariz., during the 2020 presidential election, several news outlets reported….

Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/573768-gop-backed-arizona-election-review-confirms-biden-2020-win
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The Article Was Written/Published By: Caroline Vakil

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How Democrats could actually pass their new voting rights bill | The fight to vote

Despite the huge obstacle that the filibuster poses, this new bill is significant – Democrats aren’t willing to let voting reform go

Happy Thursday,

Continue reading…

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/16/democrats-voting-rights-bill-senate-filibuster
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The Article Was Written/Published By: Sam Levine

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Gavin Newsom will remain California governor after easily defeating recall attempt

Democrat found himself in peculiar position after Republican-led recall gained steam amid the worst of the state’s pandemic

California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, has prevailed in a rare recall election that left him battling for his political life.

The Associated Press has projected the results about 45 minutes after polls closed, signalling that voters have eschewed the choice to replace Newsom with his most popular challenger, the rightwing radio host Larry Elder. While the race was called by the AP on Tuesday night, the vote count is not yet final, and election officials have 30 days to count all the ballots.

Continue reading…

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/14/gavin-newsom-will-remain-california-governor-after-easily-defeating-recall-attempt
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The Article Was Written/Published By: Maanvi Singh in Oakland

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“Big Lie” hits California recall election

The “Big Lie,” a falsehood peddled by Donald Trump that the 2020 election was “stolen,” is now being peddled by conservative figures amid other down-ballot elections, most notably, the California recall election.

Why it matters: Now that the precedent has been set, some conservatives will likely use unfounded allegations of election fraud as a basis for undermining all potential election outcomes they don’t agree with.

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• To be clear, there’s been no evidence of widespread voter fraud in the California recall election, or 2020 presidential election.

Driving the news: Right-wing media and political figures have already begun alleging that the recall, which will take place on Tuesday, is “rigged.”

• Fox Nation host Tomi Lahren said last week that the only thing that will save California Gov. Gavin Newsom in his recall election is “voter fraud.” The claim has been peddled by right-wing media outlets and personalities for the past few weeks.
• “Does anybody really believe the California Recall Election isn’t rigged?” Trump’s “Save America PAC” blasted in an email to supporters Monday.
• “Millions and millions of Mail-In Ballots will make this just another giant Election Scam, no different, but less blatant, than the 2020 Presidential Election Scam!”

Be smart: Tech platforms like Twitter and Facebook implemented systems to better address false allegations of voter fraud during the 2020 election. However, it’s clear that those systems aren’t perfect and may not be equipped to handle similar narratives circling down-ballot elections moving forward.

• Data from Zignal Labs, a social media intelligence firm, finds that between June 1 and September 1, mentions of things like “fraud,” election “rigging” or “stealing ballots” received hundreds of thousands of mentions, with occurrences spiking in the past two weeks.
• Google searches for ‘voter fraud’ in California have increased more than 5x over the last week, according to Google Trends data.

Bottom line: Trump’s comments hold particularly strong weight, even without access to the major social media platforms to amplify them.

• They give conservative pundits and politicians license to use the “Big Lie” falsehood to preemptively undermine any election, which could impact voter turnout.

Source: https://www.axios.com/big-lie-california-recall-election-bd18f482-9d66-4d29-bce2-38598b417838.html
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The Article Was Written/Published By: Sara Fischer

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Senate Democrats unveil new voting rights bill

A group of Senate Democrats unveiled new voting rights legislation on Tuesday in another attempt by the party to pass sweeping changes to federal elections in the face of a GOP filibuster. The new bill…

Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/572096-senate-democrats-unveil-new-voting-rights-bill
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The Article Was Written/Published By: Celine Castronuovo

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Trump is already claiming the California recall is rigged

OAKLAND — Donald Trump opened his presidency by falsely claiming massive voter fraud in California. Now he’s returned to the subject, raising the prospect that the outcome of next week’s recall election could follow the same divisive path as last year’s presidential election.

Trump, who told Newsmax this week that the election to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is “probably rigged,” is the most prominent in a string of conservatives who have cast evidence-free aspersions on the upcoming vote.

With Republican figures simultaneously telling voters that Newsom’s defeat is inevitable and cautioning that Democrats will try to manipulate the outcome — and polls showing Newsom is likely to survive — it’s a combustible combination. It also might be a preview of what’s in store for the 2022 midterm elections in the wake of Trump’s barrage of false claims about the integrity of election results.

Republican-turned-independent Assemblymember Chad Mayes said his phone has been lighting up with “texts saying ‘don’t let them steal it.’”

“It’s this constant messaging that somehow if Republicans lose elections, it’s because of voter fraud. It is wrong, it is dangerous, and it needs to stop,” Mayes said.

Republican frontrunner and talk show host Larry Elder, who has denied that President Joe Biden fairly won the 2020 election, is among those fomenting the idea of a tainted recall election. He has urged his followers to report “suspicious” recall activity, while saying he was preemptively prepared to file a lawsuit.

Conservative commentator Tomi Lahren assured viewers this week that only malfeasance could deliver Newsom a win.

“The only thing that will save Gavin Newsom is voter fraud,” Lahren said on Fox.

As prominent Republicans and pundits fan the flames, social media has circulated a story about Torrance police arresting a man with drugs, a gun and hundreds of sealed mail-in ballots (police are still investigating) and a debunked claim that California ballots are designed to reveal how people voted.

All of it resembles the contentious aftermath of the 2020 presidential election, which has been marked by Trump’s ongoing election fraud lie.

“There has been this relentless false narrative about election fraud we’ve been hearing for almost a year now” that “peaked with the insurrection on Jan. 6, and it’s been continuing,” said Kim Alexander, president of the nonpartisan California Voter Foundation. “Just because something doesn’t make sense to you doesn’t mean someone’s trying to steal your vote,” she added, but as conspiracies circulate online, “the more outrageous it is, the quicker people hit the ‘share’ button.”

Warnings about pervasive fraud have helped erode Republican distrust in elections. And no one has played a more pivotal role in undermining trust than Trump. As far back as 2016, after Trump lost California by more than 4 million votes, he claimed he was the victim of “massive voter fraud.”

Two years later, he returned to the subject. “In many places, like California, the same person votes many times — you’ve probably heard about that,” Trump said, without offering any proof. “They always like to say ‘oh, that’s a conspiracy theory’ — not a conspiracy theory, folks. Millions and millions of people.”

California Republicans once reliably voted early by mail while Democrats waited until the last moment. But that dynamic has flipped in recent years as Trump and other conservatives relentlessly hammered mail voting as vulnerable to fraud. In 2020, California shifted to a model in which elections officials mail every voter a ballot — and in a repeat of the voting dynamics of 2020, Democrats are now far outpacing Republicans in returning recall ballots.

“You’ve got the fear factor where all the Republicans are holding onto their ballots because Donald Trump made the statement prior to Georgia, ‘hold on to your ballots, don’t vote in person’,” said pro-recall consultant Anne Dunsmore. “I got all of these crazy responses of, ‘it’s a wasted vote.’”

The California Republican Party is both encouraging voters to trust the process and creating avenues to report wrongdoing. The party has put out videos featuring Rep. Michelle Steel and other figures urging voters to participate, including by mail or by handing ballots off to collectors — a process conservatives once decried as “ballot harvesting” and now pursue. Its website also features options to volunteer or contribute money to “election integrity” efforts that could include legal action.

“I think making sure every voter is educated on the way they can vote and putting these security measures into place, being preventative, being proactive will help people gain confidence in the way they are voting,” party chair Jessica Millan Patterson said in an interview. “This is what we’re doing at the California Republican Party. It doesn’t really matter to me what else is going on outside of that — I want people to vote. I want people to have confidence in their vote.”

Polling shows a stark divergence in how voters in the two major parties view elections. Most California Democrats express confidence in California elections. But a plurality of Republicans espouses little faith, and most California Republicans say they are concerned that non-eligible people might vote. A majority of state Republicans still believe the 2020 election was “stolen” from Trump, according to a recent YouGov/Hoover poll.

At the same time, Republicans are confident that Newsom will be recalled even as polls consistently give Newsom a double-digit advantage. That disconnect all but ensures that a tight Newsom victory would spur a new wave of voter fraud accusations.

Foes of Newsom argue the governor has also undermined confidence in the vote. They point to rhetoric from the governor and his allies casting the election as an illegitimate power grab, a “coup” and an extension of the “Stop the Steal” protests of the 2020 election that culminated in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. Republicans hammered the Democrat-controlled legislature for seeking to protect the governor by moving up the election date at Newsom’s urging.

“They have tried every step of the way to delegitimize the recall,” Republican Assemblymember and recall candidate Kevin Kiley said during a debate, adding that “the scales have been tilted in favor of the incumbent here, and I think that’s why a lot of people distrust our election process.”

But Mayes, the assemblymember, argued the drumbeat of accusations was undermining the larger project of reviving the beleaguered California GOP, which has not controlled a statewide office in years and represents just a quarter of state lawmakers.

“It’s their excuse for losing elections when, in reality, Republicans need to change if they want to win again in California,” Mayes said, “and when they blame voting fraud it gives them an excuse not to change.”

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/09/trump-california-recall-rigged-511025
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The Article Was Written/Published By: Jeremy B. White

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Andrew Yang to launch a third party

Former presidential and New York mayoral candidate Andrew Yang is set to launch a third party next month, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Yang is expected to start the party in conjunction with the Oct. 5 release of his new book, “Forward: Notes on the Future of Our Democracy.”

It’s not clear what the name of Yang’s third party will be or how he plans to deploy it in 2022 or 2024. Yang and his team did not respond to requests for comment.

But the book’s publisher, Crown, did give some clues about the type of platform Yang may pursue. It writes that the book is an indictment of America’s “era of institutional failure” and will introduce “us to the various ‘priests of the decline’ of America, including politicians whose incentives have become divorced from the people they supposedly serve.”

The book is blurbed by businessperson Mark Cuban (“a vitally important book”) and The New York Times’ Kara Swisher (“Can there be another political party in the U.S.?…In Forward, Yang does not just give us a laundry list of intractable problems, but shows how we can find solutions if we think in new ways and summon the courage to do so.”).

A former businessperson, Yang surprised many in the political world with creative, outsider campaigns for both president and mayor. His presidential campaign outlasted and raised more money than those of much more seasoned politicians. But, ultimately, that did not translate to votes as he dropped out shortly after the New Hampshire primary and faded in the polls as the mayoral race came to a close.

He ran predominantly on the idea of a universal basic income, which would see the government give citizens a monthly $1,000 check. It was a quirky policy proposal that did not fit neatly into the ideological prism of either party and won Yang converts among many apolitical figures online and in the media — some of whom dubbed themselves the “Yang Gang.”

This is a developing story

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/09/andrew-yang-third-party-511033
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The Article Was Written/Published By: Alex Thompson

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Everything you need to know about the California recall

California is less than two weeks away from the second recall election in state history, and the fate of Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is hardly certain.

The contest presents Republicans’ best shot in a decade to seize back some control of Sacramento after being shut out of state office since Arnold Schwarzenegger left office in 2011.

The off-year race has generated a ton of intrigue and spectacle on the part of the 45 active candidates seeking to replace Newsom, and the governor’s every move in the past several months has been scrutinized through the lens of its effect on his chances of survival.

Here’s what you need to know about California’s unique, two-step ballot process.

When is the recall?

California’s recall date is Sept. 14. Millions of ballots have been sent out, and voters have until Sept. 7 to mail-in a request for one.

Some of those ballots have already have been cast. Elections officials will count all ballots that are postmarked by election day and delivered within a week of the deadline.

Who is on the ballot?

By definition, the person in the hot seat will be Newsom, who was elected in 2018. If a majority of people vote to recall him, the question shifts to who should be selected to fill out the final year-plus of his term.

Newsom is barred from being on the list of recall candidates — if voters back his recall, he’s done. Candidates only need a plurality of votes to win the recall, opening up the possibility that someone wins with just a fraction of the ballots cast to keep Newsom as governor.

Party leaders made the strategic decision to discourage Democrats from running as replacement candidates in an effort to consolidate support for Newsom. Without mainline Democratic politicians on the ballot, the leading option is YouTuber Kevin Paffrath.

But much of the attention has been on the conservative candidates. Reality star Caitlyn Jenner got a burst of coverage early in her bid but has been dogged by questions of her policy acumen and commitment to running after she temporarily left the campaign trail to film a show in Australia.

Libertarian radio host Larry Elder emerged as a leading Republican contender in recent weeks. He has since faced calls to drop out from other Republicans after POLITICO reported that in 2015 he allegedly pulled out a loaded gun during an argument with his then-fiancé — an accusation Elder has denied — and his past comments about women have resurfaced in various media reports.

Other leading Republicans on the docket include former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, 2018 Republican gubernatorial nominee John Cox, state Assemblymember Kevin Kiley and former Assemblymember Ted Gaines. The state GOP opted not to endorse any one candidate.

What are the prospects of Newsom getting recalled?

Public polling has consistently shown that Newsom is favored to stave off the recall, though recent surveys have put the anti-Newsom forces within striking distance. A July poll of likely voters from the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies showed just a 3-point margin for keeping the governor. A separate poll released Wednesday night from the Public Policy Institute of California, which considered a broader group of likely voters, showed a larger 58-39 gap in Newsom’s favor.

Republicans are confident they have an enthusiasm advantage, and Democrats in recent weeks have stepped up outreach to the party’s base in order to combat voter complacency and avert an upset.

Democrats were planning to deploy Vice President Kamala Harris, a California native, and President Joe Biden to campaign on Newsom’s behalf. However, the tumultuous final days of the Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan has complicated those plans — depriving Newsom of some political star power down the stretch.

How did California get here?

In some ways, the recall effort was a major beneficiary of the chaos caused by the global pandemic.

To be successful, a recall petition needs to generate enough signatures from registered voters equivalent to 12 percent of the turnout in the prior gubernatorial election, or slightly less than 1.5 million valid signatures in Newsom’s case.

The conservatives who organized the campaign received a big break last year when a judge afforded them several additional months to gather the petitions necessary to trigger a recall. During that extended window, frustration with California’s public health restrictions — and the image of Newsom attending a soiree at the tony French Laundry restaurant — helped fuel the signature drive that had previously struggled to gain sufficient traction.

Newsom’s standing has waxed and waned throughout the past year and a half, based in large part on how the public has judged his handling of the pandemic.

But the seeds of the recall were planted more than a century ago when Progressive-era reformers enacted the law as a way to increase direct democracy and give the public a way to check those in power. Recall efforts have since become a fact of life for California governors, though they have rarely achieved critical mass.

How has it worked in the past?

California’s only other recall came in 2003, when voters ousted Democratic Gov. Grey Davis as he struggled to manage an energy crisis. Schwarzenegger won the race to replace him.

The famous actor emerged from a field of more than 135 candidates — though all but a handful received token support, at best — on the back of his strong name-ID and long-standing reputation as a Republican with moderate stances on cultural issues. After serving out the bulk of Davis’ term, Schwarzenegger comfortably won a full term in 2006.

As in the 2021 recall, voters were given two questions: an up or down choice on whether Davis should be recalled and a list of candidates to replace him.

More than 55 percent of the 9.4 million votes cast in 2003 were in favor of recalling Davis, and Schwarzenegger garnered roughly 1.5 million more votes than the next-closest replacement candidate.

What’s different between the 2021 and 2003 recalls?

The biggest shift in the nearly two decades since is that the state’s body politic has drifted left.

Prior to the 2003 recall, Democrats outnumbered Republicans 6.6 million to 5.2 million. By July of this year, that advantage had widened considerably and the GOP is now outnumbered 2-to-1. There are 10.2 million registered Democrats, 5.3 million Republicans and 5.1 million voters who list no party preference.

As such the GOP has seized on the recall as perhaps its best opportunity in a generation to deliver a blow to Democrats in one of the nation’s bluest states.

This year’s recall is also being held a few weeks earlier, as the 2003 contest was held on Oct. 7.

When will it be decided?

That is an open question, given California’s expansive use of voting-by-mail, and it depends on how close the results are.

Davis conceded to Schwarzenegger on the night of the recall and the results were officially certified more than a month later. Schwarzenegger was inaugurated on Nov. 17, 2003.

Republicans in California and elsewhere have also become more skeptical of the integrity of American elections over the past year or so, and potential legal challenges if the recall results are relatively close could be a complicating factor that elongates the process.

What have the courts said?

In addition to allowing the recall petitioners extra time to gather signatures, the court system has been busy sorting out the ground rules for the September election. Judge James P. Arguelles ruled against Newsom in July after the governor sought to get his Democratic Party affiliation listed next to his name on the recall ballot.

A 2019 law signed by Newsom allows elected officials who are being subjected to a recall to list their party affiliation, but Newsom’s team missed the window to do so and challenged the law in search of a workaround.

Elder went to court to ensure his place on the ballot after California election officials sought to disqualify him because of redactions on tax documents he submitted as part of his candidacy. A judge ruled that the secretary of state’s office improperly applied a law for gubernatorial candidates in a “direct primary election” — but not special contests like a recall.

And in late August, U.S. District Judge Michael W. Fitzgerald rejected a request to block the recall election on constitutional grounds, a decision the plaintiffs immediately appealed.

What is this going to cost?

The California Department of Finance estimated in early July that the administration costs of the recall will be roughly $275 million.

Jeremy B. White contributed to this report.

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/06/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-california-recall-508341
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The Article Was Written/Published By: Nick Niedzwiadek

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Thousands expected in Washington, D.C., to march for voting rights

Thousands are expected in Washington, D.C., on Saturday to mobilize for voting rights as Congress and several states consider laws that could change ballot access.

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/thousands-expected-washington-dc-march-voting-rights-rcna1786
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The Article Was Written/Published By: Natalia Abrahams

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