White House tempers hopes of retaining House control

The White House is lowering expectations that Republicans will maintain control of the House in the midterm elections — while positioning President Donald Trump to claim credit for any seats his party gains in the Senate. White House political director Bill Stepien wrote a three-page memo this week in which he outlined the political landscape confronting the GOP and bluntly warned that the party’s prospects for the House are “challenging.” “House Republicans’ goal this year is to minimize their losses,” he wrote in the memo, which was distributed to senior administration officials. A copy was obtained by POLITICO. The warning comes as Republicans try to preserve a 23-seat majority, with dozens of GOP-held seats at risk in the Nov. 6 election. Many Republican officials concede their path to retaining their grip on the speaker’s gavel is narrow and believe they will suffer their greatest losses in suburban areas, where the president has proven to be a drag on GOP candidates. But in the memo, Stepien attempted to divert blame from Trump toward several other factors which he said made a “traditionally challenging year even more difficult.” He noted that dozens of Republican incumbents had retired, creating a plethora of vacant seats for the party to defend. Stepien also highlighted the fundraising challenges confronting the GOP, noting that 92 Democratic challengers outraised incumbent House Republicans during the third fundraising quarter. And he pointed out that the party in power historically suffers significant losses during a president’s first midterm election. The memo was first reported on by Bloomberg. It comes as Trump prepares to embark on an aggressive cross-country tour through key swing states in the final days leading up to the Nov. 6 election. On Saturday, the president will campaign for Rep. Mike Bost, a downstate Illinois Republican who faces a treacherous path to reelection. While GOP prospects in the House are uphill, they are brighter in the Senate, where the party could expand its slim majority. Races are largely being fought in Republican-friendly states like North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana, where Democratic incumbents are up for reelection. Yet it is Trump, Stepien contended, who deserves credit for any potential Senate gains. The key races in play, he argued, were ones that Trump had far over-performed previous Republican presidential candidates — a dynamic that imperiled Democratic candidates in those states. “The 2018 Senate map is only (potentially) favorable because of the way President Trump rewrote it in 2016,” Stepien wrote. “The prospect of redeploying President Trump’s 2016 coalition again in 2018 put these ‘red state Democrats’ on early notice, prompted the recruitment of strong GOP challengers and is what truly makes these states the pick-up opportunities they could be this November,” he added. “These are NOT ‘red states’ or ‘Republican states’ – they are ‘Trump states.’” Article originally published on POLITICO Magazine ]]> source: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/27/trump-2018-elections-midterms-congress-943449 #Headlines by: aisenstadt@politico.com (Alex Isenstadt)

Original Post: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/27/trump-2018-elections-midterms-congress-943449