Poll: Democratic women turbocharged to vote in midterms

Nearly two-thirds of voters are highly motivated to cast ballots in this November’s midterm election — but no group more than Democratic women, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll. Overall, 64 percent are “very motivated” to vote, the poll shows. That is statistically unchanged from the 66 percent who said last month they were very motivated by the midterms, and up from 55 percent back in May. But as voters begin to lock in their November plans in President Donald Trump’s first midterm election, one key demographic group — Democratic women — is more motivated to vote than all the others. Seventy-one percent say they are very motivated to vote, more than any other group including Democratic men (63 percent), Republican men (68 percent), Republican women (69 percent), independent men (58 percent) and independent women (51 percent). The details of which cohorts are more energized form the battle lines for this fall’s midterm elections. And while energized Democratic-leaning women bode well for their party, the full picture is more complicated. Just as many Republicans (69 percent) overall as Democrats (67 percent) are very energized. And enthusiasm has leveled off after skyrocketing earlier this summer. “With [fewer] than 50 days until the midterms, our polling shows a modest drop in voter enthusiasm among Democrats and Republicans”, said Tyler Sinclair, Morning Consult’s managing director. “Notably, 69 percent of Republicans and 67 percent of Democrats said they are very motivated to vote in November, compared to 75 percent of Republicans and 72 percent of Democrats who said the same last month.” Other demographic breakdowns are a mixed bag for both parties. White voters (66 percent) are more energized than African Americans (58 percent) or Hispanics (52 percent). Nonwhite voters are central to Democrats’ hopes in a number of states and congressional districts. Younger voters are also less enthusiastic. Just 45 percent of voters aged 18-21 are very motivated, compared with 52 percent of millennials (ages 22-37), 60 percent of Generation Xers (38-53) and 74 percent of Baby Boomers (54-72). Among seniors ages 65 and older, 81 percent are very enthusiastic. The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows Democrats with a 5-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, 43 percent to 38 percent. That is down slightly from a 10-point lead last week. The poll was conducted September 13-16 — almost entirely before Christine Blasey Ford came forward to accuse Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of assaulting her when they were teenagers growing up in the Washington suburbs. (Just over a third, 34 percent, say the Senate should confirm Kavanaugh, slightly greater than the 30 percent who say Kavanaugh shouldn’t be confirmed. Thirty-six percent of voters are undecided.) Trump has little political capital to spend on rescuing Kavanaugh’s nomination, the poll suggests. Only 42 percent of voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while a 53 percent majority disapproves. The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll surveyed 1,564 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy. More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents — Toplines: https://politi.co/2plKRw6 | Crosstabs: https://politi.co/2xnJpxP source: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/19/poll-midterms-2018-women-democrats-828613 #Headlines by: SShepard@politico.com (Steven Shepard)

Original Post: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/19/poll-midterms-2018-women-democrats-828613